According to multiple reports, Red Bull Racing look set to swap Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson ahead of the Japanese Grand Prix.
Lawson was promoted to the Red Bull seat after making just 11 Grand Prix appearances for sister team Racing Bulls across two short stints in 2023 and 2024, with the New Zealander replacing Sergio Perez.
It's been a difficult time for the 23-year-old, who has failed to get out of Q1 across two full Grands Prix as well as a Sprint Race, with an average qualifying position of P19.333 - far below expectations for a team looking to compete for both Championships.
Tsunoda, meanwhile, has looked exceptional with Racing Bulls. He has reached Q3 in all three races and held top-ten positions comfortably in all three before questionable team strategy decisions saw him miss out in the Australian and Chinese Grand Prix.
He finished P6, earning three points, in the Chinese Sprint.
As pressure has mounted on Lawson, Tsunoda was asked about whether or not he would be happy to replace him at Red Bull as early as his home race at Suzuka.
He was emphatic, responding: "At Japan? A hundred per cent. The Red Bull is a faster car."
While rumours continued to build, a number of reputable media outlets, including Canal+, De Telegraaf and even ESPN have now reported that Tsunoda's promotion is expected to be officially announced this week.
The decision to swap Lawson and Tsunoda will have a far reaching impact on the team.
Firstly, it will prevent Lawson from spiralling. He has struggled with the RB21 and continuing to put him in a tough position could seriously affect him long-term, both in terms of reputation but also mentally.
Sending him back to Racing Bulls will hurt, undoubtedly, but it will put him back into a car that is believed to be easier to drive and could allow him to build up his experience in Formula One in a more comfortable environment, particularly away from as much media scrutiny as he's exposed to at Red Bull.
If Lawson shows consistency, picking up points throughout the year, then it's likely he'll have another chance in the Red Bull in 2026, with new regulations and a new car construct to work with after gaining valuable, much-needed experience.
It also affects Tsunoda, who was overlooked for a promotion when Perez was let go after the 2024 season.
The 24-year-old has openly commented on his desire to be in the Red Bull and this is now his chance to show that he deserves to stick around.
If he can get to grips with a difficult car and outperform Lawson's early showing, it might give the team positive ideas about his future within the team.
Alternatively, it could show the limits of Tsunoda and whether or not he is capable of stepping up to a top team and succeed or not.
Regardless of what happens, it will have significant ramifications for Red Bull and its sister team and will be a key moment of the 2025 season, even after just two race weekends.
