Red Bull Racing appear close to announcing their driver line-up for 2025, and Liam Lawson could be in line for an early promotion.
Sergio Pérez's future with the team has been a constant topic of discussion throughout 2024, especially as results dropped while alternatives continued to impress the team's management from afar.
Yuki Tsunoda remains in the frame for the second seat, next to four-time World Champion Max Verstappen, having impressed the team during his recent Abu Dhabi test in the RB20 - his technical feedback, in particular, impressed engineers at the team.
However, while Tsunoda has the experience behind him, there's still plenty of talk over 22-year-old New Zealander Liam Lawson and his potential that could see him take that second seat.
Lawson has impressed in his two brief stints in Formula 1, in 2023 and this season, combining for six points across 11 races so far. He's had some solid efforts with Red Bull's sister team, Visa Cash App Racing Bulls as of next season, but the main team should be wary of rushing his development.
Three ninth-place finishes and zero DNFs make for fairly decent reading so far for Lawson, who has demonstrated aggression and confidence in his style since returning to the grid after replacing former Red Bull favourite Daniel Ricciardo.
However, when looking at Red Bull's history of working with youngsters in recent years, it paints a picture that should be a warning to the team to not make the same mistakes.
Enter Pierre Gasly and Alex Albon.
Gasly and Albon are both staples of the Formula 1 grid right now, with Alpine and Williams respectively, but both progressed through the Red Bull Junior program and both raced for its two teams.
Gasly raced for more than a full season with Toro Rosso (at the time), earning 29 points and a 15th-place finish in the 2018 season before being promoted to the main team as Ricciardo's replacement for 2019.
With Red Bull chasing a championship, they desperately wanted a driver that could match Verstappen and consistently fight for podiums. In 12 races for Red Bull, Gasly did not reach the podium but scored points in nine of them and reached P4 at the British Grand Prix at Silverstone that year.
It wasn't deemed enough, though, and Alex Albon was promoted part-way through that season.
It was Albon's first year in Formula 1 and he had scored points in five races for Toro Rosso that year before earning his promotion. In the remaining races that year, Albon usually finished P5 or P6 in almost every race, except one P14 in Brazil and one P4 in Japan.
It was enough to be given a full year with the team in 2020, where he finished seventh in the Drivers' Standings with 105 points and two P3 finishes. Gasly, meanwhile, picked up a P2 in Brazil the year he was demoted and even won his first F1 race in Monza the following year.
The two drivers should serve as a warning to Red Bull.
Lawson has not yet produced results close to what either had demonstrated before receiving promotions to the main team.
Equally, the handling of them could have had a negative impact on their careers, with Gasly inexplicably kept in the sister team despite consistent performances while Albon was reduced to a reserve driver role in 2021 altogether.
Both struggled with the pressures of being a Red Bull driver, with little time for them to grow and develop before being thrust into one of the top seats in Formula 1. With Lawson, this could have a similar negative effect - despite how confident and aggressive he has portrayed himself on track thus far.
Since returning to the grid, Tsunoda has out-qualified Lawson 6-0 and race results are 4-2 in favour of the Japanese driver, who has amassed 87 starts in his career to date. Lawson has just 11 races to his name in F1, even less than how many Albon managed before receiving the job next to Verstappen.
It is a tough ask to put a young driver into such a high-pressure seat, alongside one of the greatest drivers in history, especially when results have not yet shown that he is capable of outperforming his teammate in a more media-friendly environment.
The best course of action for Red Bull in 2025 would be to allow Lawson the chance to continue developing at VCARB, while promoting Tsunoda to the main team.
Lawson would likely be partnered with Isack Hadjar, who recently finished as runner-up in Formula 2, and the young New Zealander would have the chance to lead and grow naturally over the course of a full season.
If he can impress and regularly score points next year, then a seat in 2026 would be readily waiting for him, with Tsunoda potentially only likely to remain in the Red Bull setup for another season unless he can truly show his full capabilities - especially with the departure of Honda to Aston Martin for 2026.
If Red Bull believes Lawson is truly ready for the promotion, that will be the likely outcome, but if history has shown them anything it should be that rushing a talented youngster may not be the best option.
