Milton Keynes needs to build more than 32,700 new homes in less than two decades to meet the needs of the city’s 2040 population.
Research by socio-economic experts at Marrons has revealed Milton Keynes’ population is predicted to remain relatively static, with 228,438 adults expected to be living in the city by 2040. However, this includes a 43% increase in the number of people aged 66 or over, bringing the total for this demographic to 58,717. Additionally, by 2040 there will be 71,908 first-time buyers (25-44-year-olds), and 12,102 of student age (18-22) – the analysis highlights the pressing need to accommodate the city’s demographic growth, especially regarding its ageing population.
The research also identifies high levels of under-occupancy, with a reported 13,248 people aged 66 and over residing in homes larger than necessary (two or more bedrooms unoccupied). If this trend continues, more than 21,534 65+ households are expected to be under-occupied by 2040.
Despite being home to three universities, Milton Keynes’ student-age population is projected to have dropped by 11% in 2040, in stark contrast to the 43% rise in people aged over 66. Furthermore, its social housing stock is estimated to have plummeted by 2,718 despite 1,446 people being listed on their local authority’s housing register in 2023.
Dan Usher, economics director at Marrons, who specialises in housing need evidence, said: “Out of all England’s local authorities, Milton Keynes is set to see the joint-eighth largest increase in its over-66 population. The city has a unique challenge ahead – how should it manage its housing to mix to ensure that the later living population has suitable accommodation, alongside other demographics?
“Building a range of homes to suit many different needs is not only a priority but a necessity. It creates more choice, aids first-time buyers onto the property ladder, gives expanding families additional space; helps the ageing population downsize and live in homes more suitable for their needs, and adds to the supply of affordable housing.”
Out of all 19 local authorities in the South East, Buckinghamshire leads the way in terms of housing demand, needing to build 51,506 homes to meet demand in 2040.
Utilising the latest Office for National Statistics Census data (2021) and 2018-based population projections, Marrons has painted a clear picture of England’s housing needs in 2040. Supplementing this is data from local authority housing registers, affordable housing stock records and extrapolated housing requirement figures using the government’s standard method.
Simon Macklen, partner and head of economics at Marrons, said: “England is poised for significant demographic change over the next two decades, bringing forth new challenges and opportunities in the housing sector.
“In examining the data, it becomes evident there is a significant need for general market homes to accommodate the growing population. As well as meeting this basic need, more could be done to provide greater choice and acknowledge the positive impact of specialist and affordable homes as part of a functioning housing market, much of which can be facilitated through market-led development at scale.
“Already, England has been named as the most difficult place to find a home in the developed world, and our ageing population and rising property prices will only exacerbate the problem. If we are going to meet the requirements of the population in 2040, we need to prioritise future residents and start building the right homes today.”
